I want to agree, but I think the one thing a service can use to differentiate itself would be "having everything" like Netflix used to be. That said, I think the ship has sailed on that, big time. Not only would I be shocked if the studios ever decide to go back to not directly monetizing their property themselves, I will be shocked if Netflix as a brand could roll themselves back to just being a content distributor. Maybe another brand could do it, but I think Netflix is too far down the path their are on.
Catch-22.
As you say, "they're toast".
People don't want to believe it, but the cable companies turned out to be charging a pretty fair price, other than the rental costs for the boxes. I'd bet that those rental fees were the difference between them breaking even and making a profit, too. People don't realize just *how expensive* it is to make content now.
J.Ja